SUDAN: THE STATUS OF THE CURRENT CIVIL WAR

ABSTRACT  

This Article delves into the intricacies of the current civil war in Sudan that officially began in  2023. It investigates, analyzes, and briefly compares the factors that have led to the war and the  history of wars in the country. It also goes ahead to critique and analyze the effects of the conflict.  Finally, it provides a probable solution to remedy this situation.

INTRODUCTION

The ongoing conflict in Sudan results from a power struggle within the transitional government  between the leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and  the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), which started after  Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned from his position as Sudan’s head of state in January  2022.¹ However, over the years, Sudan has had a history of civil wars since its independence, such  as the cessation that led to the separation of South Sudan from Sudan.

When we investigate the series of events that have culminated in this conflict, it dates back to 2019  when, Omar Al Bashir, was ousted from the presidential seat through a coup d’état. The coup was  orchestrated by the joint efforts of the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Forces with the aim of  establishing a transitional government and a new constitution.²It should be noted that Bashir’s  tenure in office lasted from 1993 to 2019 which involved being charged with the crimes against  humanity, war crimes and genocide as a result of the Darfur conflict.³ Furthermore, during this Darfur conflict that saw the killing of many civilians, he was able to actualize these crimes with  the aid of an Arab militia known as Janjaweed.⁴

After ousting the former president, Burhan (the SAF leader), together with Hemedti (the RSF  leader) led the Transitional Sovereignty Council alongside other militia leaders and several  civilians and they chose a prime minister who was majorly voted in by the civilian members in the  council.⁵ The Prime Minister’s tenure was short lived as in October 2021 a coup was orchestrated  against his government, and the constitution was suspended as a result.⁶ This coup was planned by  the SAF and RSF; however, it was not appreciated by the civilians, and they demonstrated seeking  the return of the Hamdok (prime minister), as he represented the civilian control in the government.  Hamdok was reinstated in November 2021, but he had to agree to concede certain governing powers to Burhan and Hemedti. This second time in office saw him resign in January 2022, and  since then, Sudan has not had effective civilian leadership, and Burhan has been the de facto head  of state.⁷

It is worth noting that the RSF group conflicting with the SAF, was formed from the Janjaweed  militia.⁸

Therefore, the dispute between the two warring groups has and is causing violence in the country,  leading to humanitarian and political crises. It has further divided the country into two, whereby  the army is in control of the North and East, while the paramilitary (RSF) holds nearly all of the  western region of Darfur and Swathes of the South.⁹

BODY

The Cause of the Conflict 

After the resignation of the prime minister in January 2022, there were negotiations between the  SAF leader and RSF leader with an aim of transitioning the country to civilian leadership in the  long run. However, the two leaders could not agree on several governance matters and the civilian  population demanded civilian representation and accountability for the armed forces. In December  2022, a deal was laid down as the groundwork for a two-year transition to civilian leadership and  national elections, but this plan was rejected by the citizens as they were against a number of things  one of them being the security sector retaining some post-transition state powers.¹⁰ This plan was  supposed to eventually integrate the RSF into Sudan’s legitimate armed forces under the civilian  leadership that was to be formed. However, the deal did not provide a precise timeframe for the  actual integration of the RSF into the SAF, and there arose tension between the RSF-SAF  relationship, and a lack of clarity regarding the future of the two forces as subordinates of an  elected government.¹¹ As months passed with no clear agreement, it stalled the country’s transition  due to the power struggle between Burhan’s SAF and Hemedti’s RSF, and by early April 2023,  SAF troops were lined in the streets of Khartoum while RSF troops were deployed throughout  Sudan, and a series of explosions and gunfire began on 15^th April 2023.¹²

The Effects of the War

This conflict has caused diverse implications not only on the country but also on an international  level. The fact that the two warring groups have split the country into two sides, the international  community is also split into either supporting one group over the other, or remaining neutral.  However, the United Nations has been neutral as it believes that both groups are to be held  accountable for crimes committed against humanity and war crimes committed against the civilian  population.

The consequences of the Sudan conflict can be felt in two facets namely: 

a) Humanitarian impact

The negative humanitarian effects have been aggravated further due to foreign intervention  caused by the conflict between the two groups. As much as foreign intervention may be in  a bid to quell the dispute some foreign states are facilitating the warring parties financially  and militarily, and these makes the status quo worse. A large number of Sudanese have  been displaced from their homes, making the country experience the world’s largest  displacement crisis that has resulted from civil war.¹³

Due to the war itself, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed. Furthermore, the  country is facing the most significant famine in the world, making it the most catastrophic  humanitarian crisis according to the UN.¹⁴ The warring parties have thus been accused of  committing ethnic cleansing and genocide, especially in West Darfur, by the RSF.¹⁵

b) Political impact

Since the start of this war, it has attracted the attention of individual states and the  international community at large, and therefore, the geopolitical and internal politics of the  country have come into play. 

For Sudan, which is a sovereign state as it is recognized as one in international law, the  current civil war is creating a legal absurdity/conundrum for the international community  on which of the two groups should be representing the country in international forums, because a state cannot have two different legal personalities. 

The fact that the two groups claim to have the interests of the citizens and therefore, they  should be considered the legitimate government, states around the world are, as a result, recognizing either of the two groups, and some are going ahead to support them in the war  against the other group. An example is the UAE, which supports the RSF group and has  gone ahead to supply military support to them by transporting them through Chad and other  states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, and the Wagner group supports the RSF over the SAF.¹⁶ On the other hand, the SAF is being supported by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and  Iran, among other states.¹⁷ Therefore, the interests that different states are showing to the  different groups have made the efforts to maintain peace and achieve conflict resolution  more cumbersome. This was evident when the SAF refused to participate in the peace talks  in which the UAE was the mediator because the army believed that this state is supporting  their rivals and even went ahead to file a complaint against the country and Chad to the UN  Security Council.¹⁸ After filing the complaint to the UNSC the case was referred to the  ICJ.¹⁹ RSF on the other hand have shown acceptance to dialogue talks with the aim of  restoring peace in the country. However, recently the RSF leader called out Egypt for  supporting the SAF and demanded they stop supporting the army and importing Sudanese  products to its northern neighbor.²⁰

States such as the US have shown little interest in this ongoing war, and it is only recently  that they hit the RSF with sanctions after there were widespread allegations that the RSF  is committing war crimes, such as genocide.²¹ Before this sanction, the US in 2024 only  facilitated a temporary ceasefire in Sudan to evacuate the diplomats and their families, as  well as the foreigners living in the country.²²

It is worrying in the UN’s view that, with the devastating humanitarian effects of the war, which is drawing attention from the UN, it is not expected to get such widespread recognition. At the peak of this recognition, the RSF has gone ahead to sign a Charter in  Nairobi, Kenya, with allied political and armed groups with the aim of establishing a  government of peace and unity, and further, they agree that Sudan should be a secular,  democratic, non-centralized state.²³ A move that the de facto Sudan government has  condemned and further raised criticism in Kenya. 

RECOMMENDATIONS  

The two warring groups should surrender this matter to the jurisdiction of the ICJ, whereby  the international court will decide on the legal group that will form the lawful sovereign government. Upon surrendering this matter to the ICJ, it is only then that the UN can  intervene in the internal conflict. Upon making the decision, the UN peacekeeping mission  will be tasked with the obligation of ensuring the ICJ orders are adhered to by the groups,

and the civilian population will not be caught up in the power struggle between the two  groups. The UN should thereafter make a declaration restricting foreign interventions into the country’s conflicting groups, which will be enforced and overseen by the UN Security Council.

CONCLUSION  

It is a sad state of affairs that is increasingly warring due to the humanitarian effects felt in Sudan  as a result of a war that is caused by the power struggle between armed groups, one being a  constitutionally recognized army, while the other is a paramilitary. Moreover, from this civil war, we see how geopolitics plays a vital role in further worsening or improving the situation. In  conclusion, this civil war is a depiction of how poor governance and selfish political interests can  deteriorate the lives of civilians in a country.

REFERENCE(S):

1. ICJ (Sudan v UAE), Provisional Measures, Order of 28 March 2025, Request for Indication [2025] ICJ Rep (PDF) < https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/197/197- 20250328-pre-01-00-en.pdf> accessed 28 June 2025
2. Center for Preventive Action ‘Civil War in Sudan’ (Global Conflict Tracker, 15 April 2025) < https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/power-struggle-sudan 3. Kenneth Ingham, ‘Omar al-Bashir’< https://www.britannica.com/biography/Omar Hassan-Ahmad-al-Bashir
3. ‘Sudan Warns Against Recognition of Parallel RSF Govt’ (TRT Global, 23 February 2025) < https://trt.global/afrika-english/article/18268039
4. Zeinab Mohammed Salih, ‘Conflict in Sudan: A Map of Regional and International Actors’ (Wilson Center, 19 December 2024) < https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/conflict sudan-map-regional-and-international-actors
5. Khalid Abdelaziz, ‘Sudan’s RSF, Allies Sign Charter to Form Parallel Government, Two Signatories Say’ Reuters (23 February 2025)< https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudans-rsf-allied-groups-sign-charter-form parallel-government-two-signatories-2025-02-22/